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Epidemiologist model so wrong x 25 over

posted 29 Mar 2020, 18:32 by Happi Mess   [ updated 14 Apr 2020, 19:40 ]
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HOT OF THE PRESS >> Epidemiologist model so wrong x 25 over
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model
has been instrumental in governmental policy decision making,
offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.



***HE NOW REALIZES HE #MODELED #INCORRECTLY***, 
and what he initially predicted to be a severe loss of lives will 
actually be 25 TIMES LESS DEADLY than originally projected.













Source






content pasted below 







BREAKING

This is the #epidemiologist who created a mathematical model to predict the severity of #COVID19
which many other nations, including ours, used to create drastic lockdown policies for its citizens. 


Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model
Admits He Was Wrong, 
Drastically Revises Model❗️


“Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/imperial-college-scientist-who-predicted-500k-coronavirus-deaths-in-uk-revises-to-20k-or-less


However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.


Ferguson thus dropped his prediction
from 500,000 dead to 20,000.



Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.



https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243277722819977217


To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year. [In the US, the number of deaths from influenza and other respiratory viruses is 20,000-50,000 every year].

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.


Ferguson’s change of tune comes
days after Oxford epidemiologist
Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.





“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times. Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.


If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.


In other words, 
Ferguson’s highly influential initial
model was off by orders of magnitude.













References









Pub MedGov


The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.













WEBSITE link https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/


screen shot 



























Yoram Lass



Prof. Yoram Lass: Coronavirus less dangerous than the fl
google translated 

multiple New York time articles - subscription required














Google Translated



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speaker and source of video not know, nor is the reason for the country symbol 
it could be a comedy skit but it happens to make sense in sync with 5G refer below 





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its just weird how some people already know stuff 

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Faq



updated 28/3/2020


status quo 



updated 28/3/2020

analytically speaking
death and chaos from global shutdown will far outweigh
the death from the virus
the majority of deaths would most likely be occur Season Flu
(global stats 500,000 pa)

  • Seasonal flu for 2019-2020 is down stats shifted to covid-19 (graph down page after stats)



2009 Season Flu  (Swine Flu) PANDEMIC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
  • Jan to Aug 2009 According to WHO death approx 20,000 
    no global reset / shut down effected 1 billion of 7 billion (more than 1918 Pandemic
  • follow up study in Sept 2010 showed results no higher than seasonal flu, 
    WHO estimates 250,000 to 500,000 deaths seasonal flu 
  • no global shut down, Media Hysteria, financial crisis; leading to suicide stress cancer, looting 
  • no exhausting resources, denying of emergency health services 




Stats




Covid-19 / Corona novel (animal) virus


updated 28/3/2020


28/3/20 covid-19 global
known cases deaths  % day recovery
600000 27000 4.50% 74.0 95.50%
Existing illness 67%
 28/3/20 covid-19 global
UNknown cases deaths  % day recovery
4,000,000 27000 0.68% 74.0 99.33%


compare to 2009 season flu - Swine Flu
  2009 swine flu
cases deaths  % day
1,000,000,000 27000 0.00% 74.0

Related stats


population Tuberculosis % day
8,000,000,000 10,000,000 0.13% 27397.3
population starvation % day
8,000,000,000 9,000,000 0.11% 24657.5
population fin stress % day
8,000,000,000 500,000 0.01% 1369.9
population %
8,000,000,000 major threat
elderly (60+) 960,000,000 12.00%
serious sick 400,000,000 5.00% 17%
not at risk 83.00%
83% of global population NOT AT RISK of death



FC stats







stat clocks




added 30/03




added 28/3


added 28/3 
world Death clock window below https://www.worldometers.info/
scroll the window to see deaths per year or day




Outcome: Covid-19 

95% of the deaths were underlying illness or elderly / terminal 
the data is not accurate as it has been collated in a rush / best guess / using untested equipment 

Italy reported 30% of test equipment from China failed 
Australia has cases of people turned away from initial test station to later confirm they have corona

The Elderly
90% of the elderly that die from Covid-Con would otherwise die from the Season Flu during the next 9 mths
that will be evidenced by the stats for Season Flu (Globally 500k)
Season Flu 2017 600k  2019 400k  - average is 500k  (google search it)




Crisis of covid-19
1. MS media Hysteria reporting 
2. Financial chaos - stressed families, looting, starvation, 
3. Broken emergency service to elderly and sick dying at home from Hysteria no medicals or care support as those
people have to keep a social distance or in isolation due to contracting the virus





















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undecided .. flip it heads or tails 
























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